Tag: green jobs

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ScotWind: Investment needed to deliver supply chains & jobs in Scotland

Transition Economics was commissioned by the Scottish Trades Union Congress to analyse ScotWind projects, including ownership, potential job creation, and the infrastructure and supply chains needed to deliver on investment committed by offshore wind developers.

Our full report is available here Scotwind: The Investment needed to secure manufacturing jobs in Scotland

STUC’s press release launching the report is here: ‘Hot Air’: STUC Report Exposes £2 Billion Black Hole in Government Green Jobs Ambitions

Launching the report, STUC General Secretary Roz Foyer said:

“Our ScotWind report released today, the latest in our analysis of Scotland’s green energy economy, shows that politicians have their head in the sands with a £2 billion gap in the funding needed to build our domestic supply chain.”

“In order to reach the target of 25,000 jobs, Scotland needs a minimum of 19 manufacturing sites. We currently have zero. That’s a chronic indication of the political rhetoric clearly not matching the action needed to do what is right by our energy workers.”

Summary of our analysis on ScotWind investment, ownership, potential job creation and investment needed to deliver supply chains and jobs:

  • ScotWind developers have committed to invest 38% of their overall supply chain spend in Scotland – equivalent to almost £30 billion.
  • If ScotWind developers do actually source from Scotland at the scale committed to, this could potentially deliver peak direct employment of 25,000 jobs.
  • The potential average direct & indirect jobs per annum are 3,500 over 10 years of development, 19,700 over 9 years of manufacturing & fabrication, 7,100 jobs over 9 years of installation, 2,000 jobs over 26 years of operations, and 455 jobs over 8 years of decommissioning if ScotWind developers meet their commitments. These phases will be partially overlapping as individual projects are initated at different times.
  • However, to reach the job creation potential and domestic procurement ScotWind developers have promised, there needs to be an enormous ramp-up in the Scottish supply chain for offshore wind.
  • Scotland will need 19 significant fabrication sites for offshore wind components (e.g. blades, nacelles, towers, foundations, floating substructures, cables). Currently, Scotland has 0 significant fabrication sites. Only 2 significant fabrication sites are currently in development, with approved sites and initial funding allocated.
  • Existing public investment to scale up Scotland’s domestic supply chains for offshore wind is a drop in the ocean compared to the £2.5 billion – £4.5 billion required. Currently there is less than £600 million on the table – between 13% and 23% of what is needed.
  • We estimate the total Net Present Value (value of future profits) of ScotWind projects at between £7 billion (at an Internal rate of return of 4%) to £29 billion (at an Internal rate of return of 8%).
  • Greater public investment also needs to be combined with an industrial strategy setting accountable conditions to grow domestic supply chains, alongside a publicly-owned Scottish energy champion able to use its heft to make long-term commitments to domestic suppliers.

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Potential clean job creation in regions with high oil & gas employment

This place-based analysis by Transition Economics, commissioned by Platform, examines the potential for clean job creation in Aberdeen & Aberdeenshire, Fife & Tayside, Tyneside and Teesside. These four regions all have significant current employment within the oil & gas sector and its supply chains.

The report identifies three key sectors for potential clean job creation in the decade to 2032 within these regions: domestic energy efficiency retrofits, offshore wind (both fixed and floating, including manufacturing, construction and operations & maintenance), and hydrogen electrolyser exports.

Download report on regional potential clean job creation (pdf)

Total clean job potential by region by 2032 (in domestic retrofit, offshore wind and hydrogen electrolyser exports)

  • Aberdeen & Aberdeenshire: 24,500 – 33,800 jobs
  • Fife & Tayside: 24,100 – 34,200 jobs
  • Teesside: 20,100 – 28,300 jobs
  • Tyneside: 29,100 – 42,600 jobs

Total clean job potential by sector by 2032 (in Aberdeen & Aberdeenshire, Fife & Tayside, Tyneside and Teesside)

  • Domestic energy efficiency retrofit: 61,800 – 93,200 jobs
  • Offshore Wind: 30,500 – 38,200 jobs
  • Hydrogen electrolyser exports: 5,500 – 7,500 jobs

Transforming these jobs from potential numbers into reality will depend on the climate transition being delivered on schedule, alongside supportive policy frameworks and public sector investment. There are jobs-rich and jobs-poor models for decarbonisation. Reducing carbon emissions will in itself not automatically lead to significant job creation, and green jobs are not necessarily quality jobs.

However, place-based policies that stimulate job creation and learn from successes elsewhere can ensure that the sectors identified in this study create significant numbers of good quality jobs in the regions by 2032. By advocating for this future, local policy-makers can enable quality clean jobs for local residents.

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Friends of the Earth: An emergency plan on green jobs for young people

There are over 500,000 young people aged 16-24 out of work, and numbers are expected to grow substantially with the end of the furlough scheme. This is a youth unemployment emergency.
Friends of the Earth commissioned Transition Economics to identify how to create green jobs quickly, with a focus on green apprenticeships, and to identify the scale of funding needed.

The report – An emergency plan on green jobs for young people – finds:

  • The economic scarring impact of one year’s unemployment for an 18-20 year old comprises lost earnings of £42,000 – £133,000 over the next twenty years.
  • Current levels of youth unemployment could lead to £32 – £39 billion in wage scarring across the UK, if all currently unemployed 16-24 year olds stayed unemployed for 1 year. For an average-sized local authority area in England and Wales this represents £86 – £105 million in lost local earnings.
  • There are 161 existing apprenticeships standards in England that can support decarbonisation, out of a total of 571 approved for delivery. However, new standards need to be developed (e.g. whole-house retrofits), whilst others need important updates and/or numbers to be expanded significantly (e.g. heat pump installers).
  • The government could create 250,000 green apprenticeships across England and Wales for £6.2 – £10.6 billion in total funding over 5 years. This covers wages subsidies at 50% or full cost, training costs and diversity bursaries.
  • Funding the green infrastructure needed to meet climate goals – such as retrofitting existing homes and building new green homes, upgrading the railways, and afforestation – could create over 1 million jobs over the next two years, and provide the basis for recruiting and training green apprentices.

The report makes the case for a ‘green opportunity guarantee’ that commits to ensuring all young people are offered a job, an apprenticeship, or training. This includes

  • A government funded £40 billion a year green infrastructure programme would create over 1 million jobs.
  • Up to £10 billion over the next 5 years to create 250,000 green apprenticeships in England & Wales, with wage subsidies of 50-100% depending on need. Devolved nations should receive equivalent funding for programmes within their borders.
  • Strategic funding alongside a 10-year funding settlement for Further Education, to enable colleges to update curricula and massively expand the provision of green courses, traineeships, and apprenticeships.
Download report

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